They’re Lying to You About AI Productivity
You’re just coping.
Am I?
<Begin Rant>
I’ve been pretty vocal about the over-hype of AI coding tools and I always get the same responses from AI bros:
“YoU gOtta PrOmpt bEtteR!”
“This iz a skillz issue dawg”
“I’m using [x] and it works perfectly”
“I’m a super duper senior architect and I’ve replaced my entire team with AI agents. You’re coping.”
I’d be lying if I said I didn’t doubt myself.
Maybe they’re right, maybe I’m just not using these tools correctly.
But, now I’m convinced.
They’re either liars, naive or truly top .01% coders with whom mortals cannot compete.
Every other day I read about some developer who is 10x’ing their output with AI tools. Companies like Salesforce and Microsoft are claiming that AI is making them SOOOOOO productive they just have to fire their developers.
So what gives?
Let’s take a look at some big fax and small fax to understand where the truth ends and the hype begins.
It’s been 6 months — why are there more developer jobs?
Remember when the Lizard King told Joe Rogan that AI would be replacing mid-level engineers in 6 months?
That was 6 months ago.
Do you remember when Devin was supposed to replace ALL software engineers nearly a year ago?
And yet — here we are.
Despite all these catastrophic events, there are somehow MORE jobs for software developers in June of 2025 than in June of 2024. (source: https://www.trueup.io/job-trend)
It’s almost as if these CEOs are pulling predictions straight out of their… hats.
Yeah, that’s what I was going to say.
Salesforce boasted that they were cutting around 1,000 jobs this year because of AI. BUT they’re also hiring for “AI-aligned” roles like sales engineers — basically just shifting their headcount.
Which leads me to the worst and most pervasive lie about AI:
1 Senior Developer === 10 Junior Developers
I call bullsh*t.
Ask any developer who’s working on something moderately complex that includes multiple services or a backend system that is more than 3 months old how much [insert tool here] has helped them with their workflow.
It’s like we’re all afraid to admit the truth.
Which is… “it depends.”
Truly.
Meanwhile, the geniuses on LinkedIn will tell you that they’ve effectively replaced their entire team or at least that they COULD. Ya know, if they wanted.
That’s how f*cking effective these tools are.
They have an MCP server, a rules file that includes every conceivable scenario their agent may encounter and they write prompts like a cold, dead, robotic Shakespeare.
Or Tyler Perry.
If you’re not seeing the productivity gains, then you’re just using it wrong.
Bro.
Google did a little study on AI and it’s impact on productivity.
10%.
That’s how much more effective their engineers are with AI (source: https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-google-engineers-coding-productive-sundar-pichai-alphabet-2025-6).
Outside of tech these gains are more… modest.
One study found office workers unlocked a whopping 3% more productivity (source: https://www.computerworld.com/article/3998244/ai-chatbots-see-fast-adoption-but-deliver-minimal-productivity-gains-study-finds.html).
But why ruin the fun with facts and numbers from independent researchers and massive tech companies who meticulously track these kinds of stats?
That wouldn’t make for very fun YouTube videos.
ROI (Really. Over. Indexed)
Investors aren’t gonna like this one.
Companies weren’t happy enough with the magical powers we’ve gained from having AI tools like Cursor, Co-Pilot and ChatGPT.
They wanted earth-shattering, society-crippling change.
Auto-complete on steroids just doesn’t have the same ring as AGI.
So they wrote slide decks promising the world to investors who have been burned by poor planning, high interest rates and bets on web3, blockchain and crypto.
How are your NFTs btw? Good? Great!
IBM did a survey of thousands of execs and found that only a quarter of AI initiatives have achieved their expected return on investment (ROI) so far, and only 16% have successfully scaled AI across the enterprise (source: https://www.techrepublic.com/article/news-ibm-study-ai-roi/).
To many people, this would be considered a failure. But when it comes to AI — you just gotta wait.
Another 6 months and we’ll see those bets paying off.
For real this time.
[reminder to update this article in 6 months and either laugh or cry or both]
<End Rant>
For every study I’ve referenced here, there is some other study that will probably show the opposite.
Those studies are almost exclusively written by people who have a lot to gain from AI hype.
In all honesty, I have a lot to gain as well. I’m a software engineer and a business owner with a business that mentors early-career coders (Parsity.io btw — check out). How much can you really trust anything I say?
I have a novel idea!
Use the tools for yourself on non-trivial projects with teams of more than 3 people in codebases that aren’t exclusively front end. Draw your own conclusions.
Read studies.
Look at reality.
Do you personally know a single person who has been replaced by AI?
Do you know anyone who’s bought a slice of pizza with crypto?
All is not bad though.
Personally, this is the most fun I’ve had coding so far in my career. The reality is that I AM more productive. I don’t HAVE to write nearly as much code and I can build a sexy-ass (simple) web app in minutes instead of days.
I love the tools. I hate the hype.
Anyways — enjoy this blooper reel to end the show.
That’s all folks. See ya’ in 6 months — unless I’m replaced by then.
